situation in Syria in mid-2014
armed opposition Syria differs extreme heterogeneity.Against the Assad regime are several groups with different political goals.There is evidence that some of the rebels supported the international terrorist organization "Al Qaeda".Among the opposition forces can meet the radical Islamists who seek by all means to create a cohesive coalition capable to overthrow President Assad.
the enemy camp of the current president is no unity, which significantly constrains actions of the opposition.Their Western and Arab supporters are making efforts to resolve differences and put up
against a united front of the Syrian authorities.But so far such efforts have not been successful.One of the reasons that the conflict dragged on for many years, consists precisely in the fact that Assad is not opposed to a particular political opponents, and a few scattered and poorly armed groups.
The authorities periodically sought local successes in the fighting, but after that the opposition to strike back.The lack of weapons, ammunition and thousands of casualties on both sides do not stop the warring forces. Assad's opponents are actively supporting the United States, but Russia and Iran have traditionally stand on the side of the ruling political elite today.
Ways to stop the war in Syria
Analysts agree that to stop the armed conflict in Syria can only be one way.To do this, Western countries should stop their statements to the effect that a constructive dialogue between the various political forces is possible only under condition of leaving the post of President Assad.Past the June 2014 presidential election showed that the incumbent head of state enjoys the confidence of the majority of inhabitants of the country who took part in the vote.
opposition feels anger at the thought that she would have to negotiate peacefully with the newly elected President Assad.But if the leaders of hostile forces authorities and their Western backers really intend to stop the protracted bloodshed, the negotiation and reasonable compromise are the only effective antidote to war.
beginning of the conflict settlement process should be a complete cessation of hostilities by both sides.When the guns fall silent in Syria, the time will come to participate in the peace process mediation structures.Their composition and representation must be such that, during the negotiations would take into account the interests of all parties to the conflict. It is possible that after a full stop of military operations required to enter into the country an international peacekeeping force and to invite independent observers.
But this scenario still seems unlikely, since there is a sharp conflict between countries seeking mediation.Relations between Russia and the United States, and so were quite tense.Now the situation mixed with disagreements on issues related not only with Syria, but also with Ukraine.Against the backdrop of strong political struggle between two powerful nations is hard to expect that one of the parties, and other sponsors of the Syrian forces, able to make concessions for peace.It remains to prepare arguments and counter-arguments, and hope to change the situation in geopolitics.
- Geopolitics of the civil war in Syria
- How to stop the war in Syria