alignment of political forces in Russia today
To answer the question about the prospects of civil war in Russia, it is necessary to understand what the balance of power in modern Russian society.Analysts conventionally distinguish two main camps, which are crucial for the adoption of decisions relating to foreign and domestic policy.
first group seeks to minimize the independence and sovereignty of Russia.Her representatives believe that in today's world, individual states no longer play the leading role and should be replaced by supranational entities.This position corresponds to gain a foothold in Western notions of a "new world order", the charge of which will be powerful transnational corporations.
other political circles, in co
ntrast, are more focused on the expansion of the national sovereignty of Russia, strengthening the role of the State within the country and in the international arena.This position is occupied by those who are interested in autonomy and independence from outside influence of politics and economics in Russia.In other words, we are talking about the national bourgeoisie. The political elite, which now holds the control over the country, it relates to the second group.
prospects of civil war
the above two groups in the government in its pure form is almost never occur.The activities of these circles at times contradictory and connected with the clash of opposing tendencies, which accompany the compromise does not exclude, however, veiled struggle for power and influence in domestic and foreign policy of the state.
described above political groups and are the main forces that after the entry into open struggle can become initiators of armed civil conflict.It should be borne in mind that a civil war, if it is still to be unleashed, will involve a maelstrom entire population, including those who do not receive any benefits from participation in the conflict. civil war in Russia is profitable today, only the representatives of those political circles that intend to gain access to power.
the political events that took place in Russia in the last two or three years, clearly demonstrate that the so-called opposition, which organizes protests, really does not express the mood of the masses.It implements the decisions of the representatives of international capital, which would like to see Russia weak and completely dependent on the powerful West.
What consequences can lead the collision of conflicting interests of the elite, it can be judged by the events that take place from the beginning of 2014 in Ukraine.The conflict that there the opposition leaders presented as a people's struggle for a just power, in fact artificially fueled by western politicians.For Russia, the events in the neighboring country, should be a serious warning.
Today, no analyst is not taken with full confidence that in Russia certainly inflame a civil war.Much will depend on changes in the political landscape, as well as the willingness of the US and the European Union actively supported political opponents of the ruling regime in Russia.