Modern sociologists and analysts see globalization in terms of studying the positions of the main players: the United States, Russia, the countries of the Islamic region and the so-called "eastern tigers", dubbed as Japan, China and India.It is these forces determine the contours of the future.

Four scenarios

According to the US National Intelligence Council, which conducts purposeful work on the prediction of the process of globalization ("Project 2020"), ten years later, can theoretically be "four worlds."In the description of the worlds affected by the current trends and the alignment of the various social and political forces.

worst-case scenario
is called the "Ring of Fear."Everywhere there is a danger caused by terrorism, cyber attacks, a new level of crime, the spread of weapons of mass destruction of the planet.People survive in a situation of "fear gives rise to fear."

next world is the code name "New Caliphate".It is based on radical Islam, and it is the foundation of the new system.Islam deals a devastating blow to the values ​​of European civilization.

third scenario leaves open the possibility to maintain the status quo - the United States retains a dominant role, and Russia continues to resist.

latter scenario assumes rapid economic and technological development of the countries that make up the Union "Eastern tiger."This script will change the direction of globalization, it will erase the western national barriers.

Somehow, the recent events in Ukraine and the Middle East confirm horrifying trends identified by analysts.However, try and highlight the positive aspects of globalization.


above US development scenarios for the future are focused on the factors of economic, military and political.However, there are cultural studies component of the globalization process, which hinders the worst scenarios.

Loss of cultural identity actively oppose Japan, India and China.Perhaps because people living in these areas have been created not just culture, but civilization.Slavs and Europeans more united by the concept of "Christian civilization" than separated, so that the nations better to unite than to fight each other.Middle East countries most closely fits the phrase "Islamic world".

This is a positive moment - the resistance loss of national identity that will save hundreds of years the unique diversity of cultures and traditions, to live in peace and tranquility, and not closed in a ring of fear.

positive aspect of globalization is blurring the precipice in economic and social development between developed and developing countries.Until now there is an expression "developing" for countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America.

Globalization is not only for economic development but also social.Education will become more available in the regions where it is difficult to even learn to read and write.The emergence of new specialists positive impact on all areas of human activity.

Stop the process, and supporters and opponents of globalization is not possible, including the interpenetration of cultures.We must look for ways and solutions to reduce the harm from globalization to zero.