bad scenario might look like this: war is going to the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine, will be delayed, and politicians who are going to be elected to the parliament in October 2014, using dirty tricks for Political Technologies, try to make her imagine additional dividends.
Dividends earn this kind in the current Ukrainian reality is simple: alternately playing cards or "patriotic", or the need for peace at any price.The main trump card in this game can become hysterical calls of mothers whose sons are called into the army.Mothers, in turn, inflated by the same propaganda techniques - col
laborationist - media owned by a pro-Russian oligarchy.
When bad scripts, lustration, which is now likely to need more than the gas Ukraine will not be carried out in full or, even worse, it began softly damped.This will allow the corrupt officials in the executive branch and law enforcement agencies continue to sabotage any decisions to work for change in the country.
Thus, the deputies elected using dirty tricks populist and corrupt officials who continue to sabotage their actions hamper the reforms necessary for the country's recovery.
Against this background, any make unpopular decisions for the economic transformation in the country - and they may not be popular, given the crisis that exists in the country today - will work against the real reformers.And they will be forced either to retreat or withdraw.Then everything.The country is completely slid below the waterline, and will be forced to become a satellite of Russia.That is going to happen for the sake of what actually was set up war in the South East of Ukraine.
Fortunately, there is a good scenario.And he's most likely because the mood of Ukrainian society is unlikely to allow that all the effort invested by the people to defend their independence, to acquire understanding of the integrity and self-awareness as a nation, has chosen the European path of development, had crossed the narrow interests of a handful of oligarchs orpoliticians.
Yes, the problems the country has more than enough: the war and the economy collapsed.Moreover, the neighboring hostile state is interested in seeing Ukraine as deeply plunged into an economic collapse.That's what being aggressive propaganda in the media, supported by the separatists and they ferried weapons and mercenaries.
But Ukraine has a good chance of successful development.And encouraging attitude of the Ukrainian society and the serious intentions of the West with the help of financial investments and control over them, to carry out in Ukraine that managed to make Europe after World War II, when it was designed and implemented the Marshall Plan.
Acting on US-European scheme, as well as using the experience of reformist modern Georgia, the country is able to carry out all necessary reforms and spending lustration, clean and bureaucratic power apparatus.After two to four years of heavy Ukraine is waiting for progress and prosperity.