Russian economy is closely linked to the world, so it has a direct influence all economic ups and downs, crises.For example, experts of the World Bank (WB) predicts that the overall growth of the world economy is recovering from the 2008 crisis, in the next 2-3 years will be about 3.5%.As for Russia, then these economists forecasts a more modest.They believe that growth will not exceed 2.7%, and that in the best case.However, this is a very good indicator, as in the past in 2013 Russia's economic growth was only 1.4% (some economists argue that in reality it was smaller and did not exceed 1.3%).
Experts from the Ministry of
Economy of the Russian Federation are less optimistic.For example, Minister Alexey Ulyukaev said that he expects Russia's GDP growth will not exceed 2.5% and is likely to be even lower.This is due to several reasons, among which the most important - reducing the volume of investments in the Russian economy on the part of Russian business, and on the part of foreign partners, and the fall in consumer demand.Earlier, the Ministry of Economy predicted significantly greater growth of about 3% in 2014, and in the interval from 3.1 to 3.3% in the next two years.
However, all these conclusions to a certain extent arbitrary.The fact that the rapidly developing crisis over Ukraine greatly reduces the ability to give any credible forecast of economic development of Russia.If it comes to sanctions against specific sectors of the Russian economy (which was repeatedly frightened the West), it will definitely play a negative role, although competent economic policy of sanctions losses can be substantially reduced.When the worst-case scenario (if Russia would be forced to intervene in an armed conflict between the new government in Kiev and the pro-Russian militias in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions) damage from the direct costs of the conduct of hostilities and sanctions from the West could be quite large.
It is also difficult to make long-term forecast, the impact on the Russian economy a possible reorientation of cooperation with the West to the East.Especially in light of the recently concluded with China a large-scale contract for the supply of natural gas.